This September has proven to be a time of change for the UK. The passing of Queen Elizabeth II, still weighing on many minds, has overshadowed what otherwise would have been the signature news this month: the installation of Liz Truss as the new prime minister.
In the space of several days, the UK, remarkably, witnessed a change of both its head of state and head of government. Each of these significant changes, in distinct ways, will influence Scotland and its politics – including the Scottish independence debate. At this stage, the pertinent question is therefore the extent of that influence, in both respects, on Scottish politics over the months and years ahead.
Given the primacy of the independence debate, the direction of Scottish politics will be governed less by developments related to institutions of the UK state and more by local electoral factors. Three questions in particular will define both the evolution of the constitutional issue and the future of Scottish politics.
One is how long Nicola Sturgeon remains in office as first minister. She has occupied the role for nearly eight years (since November 2014); no single obvious successor exists within the SNP at present. At this stage, it is entirely unknown how the party will approach governing and independence after Sturgeon’s departure. While the SNP has internal debates, it does not have the ideological divides and leadership contenders present in most political parties. The fact that Nicola Sturgeon has never faced a serious leadership challenge during her tenure is not solely attributable to her popularity; it is a reflection of the remarkably staid nature of the Holyrood parliamentary party and an apparent absence of political ambition.
Another question is how long the SNP remains in power. By all accounts, the party retains a commanding position in Scottish politics, at the expense of every other political party, despite having formed the Scottish government for over 15 years. It might continue its successful run, at the next Holyrood election or even the one after, but that outcome is not predestined.
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