Stop lying to Scotland SNP: The demographics of separatism: A comparison between 2014 and 2024: How matters really stand Mr Swinney – Stephen Bailey
Both John Swinney, the current SNP leader and his predecessor, Nicola Sturgeon, have recently tried to play the demographics card when trying to explain away the cold hard fact that they are getting nowhere fast in persuading Scots to back separating Scotland from the rest of the UK. Both (Sturgeon during a television interview and Swinney at the SNP’s recent conference) have blethered on about how the demographics were on the SNP’s side as a certain age group (16-24 year olds) showed strong support for separating Scotland from the rest of the UK. He also deliberately mislead (lied) to MSPs at Holyrood recently by trying to misrepresent the results of a poll carried out by the pro-independence ‘National’ newspaper (sic), which found that 63% of 16-24 year old Scots supported separating Scotland from the rest of the UK. This was a deliberate misrepresentation (read ‘lie’) by Swinney as he claimed whilst debating with the Scots Conservatives at Holyrood that support for separation was ‘over 50%’, implying erroneously that OVERALL support among all age groups was over 50% when it was only the 16-24 demographic that was (see ‘Sources’ below for a link to a newspaper article which gives the full details on this incident). This statistic was also mentioned by Sturgeon in her television interview. A look at the whole picture, based on the objective, verifiable, empirical data of support for separation gives a very different picture however and contradicts the SNP’s assertions on future support for separation.
10 years ago, in 2014, just after the independence referendum, polling company YouGov conducted an extensive survey of the demographics of those that had voted-how each age group had voted. It’s findings were very interesting and revealing.
It found that:
-In the 16-24 age range, there was a small majority AGAINST (yes, AGAINST) independence. Just under 50% of young people supported Scotland staying in the Union, with support for independence behind this by only a few points.
-In the 25-39 age range, there was a small, but larger than the 16-24 age range, majority for independence. This was the group with the largest degree of support for independence.
-In the 40-59 age range, there was a small, just over 50%, majority for staying in the Union.
-In the 60-64 age range, there was, again, a small but over 50% majority for staying in the Union.
-In the 65+ age range, there was a large 65% majority for staying in the Union.
Source for this data-see ‘sources’ section below.
So, looking at broader trends, it emerges that there was a very nuanced picture when it comes to the demographics of support for separation.
It was shown that the support for separation in the younger age groups wad only very slightly bigger than that for staying in the UK, and, surprisingly, the youngest (16-24) age group actually showed a tiny majority for staying in the UK.
Support for Scotland staying in the Union was much more nuanced than SNP propaganda portrayed the situation. There was still all to play for in showing young people that the Union is the best option for all concerned in the UK. This meant that there was all to play for with the younger generations, who were clearly not a lost cause for Scotland staying in the Union.
For a fuller discussion of these earlier findings, please click here: https://www.facebook.com/100064468789107/posts/720200013472285/
Fast forward 10 years to the current year. YouGov have carried out another extensive survey of the relationship between age group and support for separating Scotland from the rest of the UK.
It determined that over the decade, little has changed in terms of the overall result of the entire electorate, with 56% opposed to separation and 44% in favour.
Specifically, it found that:
-10 years after the referendum, support for separation is effectively where it was in September 2014. 56% say they would vote ‘No’ to separation against 44% saying ‘Yes’ to Scotland leaving the United Kingdom.
-The pro-UK side have generally held on to the lead they secured in 2014, with YouGov tracker data showing the ‘Yes’ side only taking the lead briefly on a couple of occasions.
-Support for Scotland staying in the Union has enjoyed majority support in the vast majority of opinion polls and surveys whilst support for separation has peaked at 53% twice, first in August 2020 and again in December 2022, with lows of 43% recorded three times between March 2017 and January 2018.
On the question of which group supports Scottish separation today:
-Only 7 in 10 of those who voted for separation in 2014 (70%) now say they would still support it in any future referendum, while 1 in 6 (18%) have changed their minds and now wish for Scotland to stay part of the Union. Support for the UK has been less changeable, with 8 in 10 (79%) saying they would still back the Union, with just 1 in 9 (11%) now backing separation. Pro-UK supporters have been more successful at convincing separation backers to change their mind and support the Union than separation supporters have been in convincing UK supporters to support separation.
-When considering younger voters who have entered the electorate in the last decade:
-4 in 10 16-24 year olds (39%) say they would vote ‘Yes’ in a future referendum, against 3 in 10 (31%) saying they would vote ‘No’. This finding contradicts the recent poll carried out for the pro-separation paper ‘The National’, which had support for separation at 63% of 16-24 year olds and which the SNP’s John Swinney manipulated and lied to Holyrood about in an attempt to artificially inflate the support for separating Scotland from the rest of the UK in order to try and make the figure higher (another poll conducted at around the same time by Opinium found that support for separation remains at the same level since the 2014 referendum vote at 45% with backing for the Union standing at 47%-see ‘sources’ below for a link to the data in this poll).
-Of 25-49 year olds, there is a slim pro-separation majority with 42% saying they support separation, compared to 37% who are opposed.
-Older generations remain decisively against a change to the UK’s constitutional setup. Only 36% of 50-64-year-olds and 27% of over 65s back separatism, relative to 54% and 66% respectively intending to vote ‘No’.
Support for, or opposition to, separation also continues to have a significant relationship to the party system.
-Those who voted Conservative in this year’s general election overwhelmingly say they would vote ‘No’ in a future referendum (97%), while SNP voters decisively split the other way, with eight in ten (82%) saying they would vote ‘Yes’, against 1 in 10 (10%) who support the party in spite of their constitutional stance.
-7 in 10 Labour voters (69%) fall on the side of ‘No’, with only 1 in 5 (20%) saying they would vote ‘Yes’ if they were given the option.
What factors would increase or decrease support for independence?
The cost of living is also a very important factor in people’s assessment of the constitutional question:
-If the cost of living would rise as a result of leaving the UK, only a quarter of the Scottish public (26%) would support separation with two-thirds (65%) opposed and a third of current separation supporters (35%) would abandon that agenda.
-Support for separation would also be dented if Scotland was unable to continue using the Pound or if border checks were imposed between Scotland and England, in which cases only around 1 in 3 of Scots (29-33%) would back separation.
-Job losses caused by large businesses moving their operations out of Scotland would also harm the cause, with only a quarter of the Scottish public (25%) and 56% of current supporters saying they would continue to support separation if this occurred.
The hard, objective, verifiable, empirical evidence, in the form of statistics from an extensive groups of Scots show that support for Scotland staying in the Union is much more nuanced than SNP propaganda portrays the situation. There is still all to play for in showing young people that the Union is the best option for all concerned in the UK and support for the Union is still the clear choice of the majority of Scots across most demographics.
Sources:
2014 data:
2024 data: https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Internal_IndyRef_240903_CWES5Qc.pdf
Opinium ‘Indyref 10 years on’ poll data: https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/indyref-10-years-on/
Article on John Swinney’s deliberate lie to Holyrood over support for separation: https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/comment/snp-resorts-outright-lying-msp-33804617
(Does not necessarily represent the view of Scotland Matters)
